Tiago: The Next Young Brazilian to Orlando
Orlando City has brought in another young Brazilian, as they look to revamp their team this offseason. With the left wing spot a bit up in the air, does the club think Tiago is the guy that could help them solve their issues? Maybe, but first let's dive into the young winger to understand him a bit more.
Transfer Rumor
Early on December 5, there were multiple reports coming out of Brazil that said Orlando City had made a bid for a young Brazilian winger from Esporte Clube Bahia (or Bahia for short) by the name of Tiago.
These rumors appeared to come out of nowhere and at first, didn't have much structure backing but then a journalist who covers Bahia, Gabrielle Gomes, chimed in. She explained that the young Brazilian forward was being targeted by Orlando City and that Orlando had already sent a bid to Tiago's team, Bahia. The bid was not outright rejected by the club-the club didn't say the player wasn't for sale-they just deemed the offer to be a bit low. Gomes was under they impression that Orlando City were going to big again for the forward in the coming days.
After all that, the club eventually signed Tiago from Bahia and he's now officially a Lion, as of December 19th. so who is Tiago and what can he bring to the table for Orlando City for the next few years?
Background
Tiago Souza de Jesus Carvalho (Tiago for short) was born in Salvador, Brazil in April of 2005. He joined the Bahia academy at the age of 10 and has only played with them his entire youth career. At 17 years old, he trained with the first team squad for the first time and then a year later made his senior debut.
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| From Bahia Club Media |
His first team contract was originally signed a contract in 2021 through 2023 so he could train with the first team and potentially play with the first team. He had a handful of games and started to catch on at the U-20 level for Bahia. He started his U-20 championship on fire scoring 5 goals in 7 games which had him garner interest from other Brazilian teams as well as one team from Portugal. The player decided to stay and signed a contract through 2026 and had a buyout clause of 10 million euros added to his contract.
So far this season Tiago has played 1690 minutes across 6 competitions. In the Brazilian Série A, he had 3 goals, 2 assists, in 889 minutes. In the Copa do Nordeste, Tiago went on a rampant campaign where he scored 6 goals in 290 minutes. In the Campeonato Baiano, he scored 2 more goals and got one assist in 398 minutes.
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| Tiago, Bahia striker - |
Skill Set/Measurables/Advanced Stats
So now that we have a good background for Tiago, let's break down some stats and his play so we can understand his on-the-field impact. Unlike Luis Otávio, we have a decent amount of first team stats for Tiago.
Positionally, he mostly plays left wing, with some opportunities where he also plays right wing. That bodes well for a Papi system seeing as he tends to ask his wingers to swap mid game. In his youth academy days with Bahia he also played as a second striker and rarely would play as the solo striker in the formation. He comes in at 5' 10", so he isn't the biggest winger or forward but that doesn't seem to affect his play. He moves swiftly and can blow by people at a moments notice. He doesn't have Iván Angulo speed but he's still quick. He has very deliberate cuts and can attack the end line with force. Here's a highlight video to get you primed before we break down his stats.
Stats
Like always, I use FB Ref for my stats and I will continue to use visuals to help folks understand the stats I'm talking about. Throwing a ton of numbers at people won't help people understand how impactful Tiago could be. All of Tiago’s stats are from his first team minutes compared to all attacking midfielders and wingers in Série A-top flight of Brazilian soccer. I also will use Wyscout to support some of the numbers I see on FBref-the chart right below this section is from Wyscout.
General
To start, I have another data source to show a birds eye view of Tiago's skillset (Wyscout). After this graph, we'll jump into the stats and breakdown what's going on.
Shooting
Since Tiago is seen as a left winger (and some times a second striker), shooting is a great place to start and the numbers are going to make fans very happy. We’ll start with the basic stats first as they are a good jumping off point. For goals, Tiago was in the 82nd percentile with both his expected goals (xG) and non-penalty expected goals (npxG) as well as average shot distance which was in the 99th percentile. When it comes to pure shooting, it’s a bit more of a mixed bag. In total shots, he only ranked in the 32nd percentile with his shots on target percentage in the 68th percentile. However, to give Tiago credit he ranked highly on goals per shot (92nd percentile) and goals per shot on target (87th percentile).
Let’s dive a little deeper into shooting and talk about “Shot Creating Actions” and “Goal Creating Actions”. As their titles describe, these two sub topics relate to actions that lead to either a shot or to a goal. We’ll start with shot creating actions.
Tiago has a bit of a mixed bag when it comes to shot creating actions, where he only ranks in the 5th percentile. Let’s start with the positives: when it comes to "fouls drawn that leads to a shot", he ranks in the 64th percentile. For "take-ons" and "shots leading to a shot", Tiago ranks in the 45th percentile for take-ons and 36th percentile for shots. "Defensive actions leading to a shot" he ranked in the 27th percentile. Finally for passes, he ranks in the 9th percentile in "live ball passes leading to a shot" and the 12th percentile in "dead ball passes leading to a shot". As a direct winger-not so much a playmaking winger-these stats align with that play style. You don’t expect to him to rank highly in any of those except for maybe fouls drawn or take-ons.
If we turn our attention to goal creating actions-where he ranks in the 63rd percentile-the numbers improve vastly and rightfully so, considering his play style. Again, we’ll start with the positives: for "fouls drawn leading to a goal", he ranks in the 87th percentile and for "take-ons leading to a goal" he ranks in the 92nd percentile. "Defensive actions leading to a goal" and "shots leading to a goal" are much lower with defensive actions being in the 46th percentile and shots being in the 27th percentile. Live ball passes and dead ball passes aren’t much better, with live ball passes leading to a goal in the 42nd percentile and dead ball passes leading to a goal in the 37th percentile. These stats align much better with the type of winger that Tiago is and there’s some really quality stuff in here. First, to be above average on goal creating actions is a great start then add the high level of fouls drawn leading to a goal and take-ons leading to a goal, now you’ve got some quality winger play. His live ball passes being just below average isn’t the worse and can easily improve.
Passing
Now that we’ve covered shooting, let’s look at passing to see how effective Tiago has been when it comes to his distribution. Another bit of a mixed bag for the young winger but there are some positives. His medium and long pass percentages are pretty elite. For "medium pass percentage" (passes over 10 yards but below 25 yards) Tiago ranks in the 81st percentile and for long pass (over 25 yards) his completion percentage is in the 99th percentile. For assists, he also ranks above average being in the 63rd percentile. The rest of his passing stats are not stellar. For "total passing percentage" he ranks just below average in the 44th percentile. For short passing completion percentage and total passes completed he sits in the single digits for percentiles at the 5th and 4th percentile respectively.
Possession
Next we will look at some possession stats as there are some good numbers in here that people will like. We'll start on touches and take-ons. With touches, he ranks in the 2nd percentile, and it's a bit of a mixed bag but it's expected based on the type of winger Tiago plays as. In the defensive penalty area and attacking penalty area, he rates out in the 95th percentile in the defensive penalty area and he ranks in the 99th percentile in the attacking penalty area. This is exactly where you want a guy like Tiago to be; when he attacks he should be close to net and when he's defending he should marking someone while in the box. In the defensive 3rd, he rates out just below average in the 44th percentile but still pretty decent for a winger. In the middle 3rd and the attacking 3rd (outside the box), he's pretty low ranking in the 1st percentile and 15th percentile.
Turning our attention to take-ons, there are some pretty decent stuff there. The big thing that isn't as great are where he ranks in "take-ons attempted". He ranks in the 23rd percentile in this category but this could be due to when he gets his appearances and how many minutes he gets at once (there weren't as many starts in this season for Tiago). For "successful take-ons", "successful take-on percentage", and "tackled during take-on percentage", there are some great numbers there. He ranks just below average in "successful take-ons" in the 43 percentile. But when you look at "successful take-on percentage" he ranks at an elite level of the 93rd percentile. Also, for "tackled during take-on percentage" he ranks at another elite number in the 94th percentile. When you look at a winger with the hope that they can make things happen, those numbers being at the level is exactly what you're looking for; he knows how to beat people and based on his tape, he can do it with flair, speed, or strength.
Defense
Let's talk about defense a bit since in an Oscar Pareja system, the wingers are expected to contribute on the defensive side of the ball. The first set of stats revolves around tackles and challenges. For total tackles, Tiago ranks just below average in the 42nd percentile. He ranks in the 64th percentile in "tackles won", 66th percentile in "tackles won in the defensive 3rd", 17th percentile in the middle 3rd, and 61st percentile in the attacking 3rd. These are numbers you would expect from a winger, especially one that should be getting back. He doesn't tend to challenge dribblers and his numbers support that since he ranks in the 5th percentile in dribblers tackles and 4th percentile in dribblers challenged. Though he may not challenge often, he tackles dribblers well ranking in the 69th percentile and not losing those challenges really at all ranking in the 98th percentile for challenges lost.
Turning to other defensive stats, Tiago does decently. For total blocks, he ranks just above average, sitting at the 56th percentile with his "shots blocked" ranking in the 99th percentile, for his position group. When Tiago plays defense, he tends to tuck inside, instead of staying out so he has more chances for blocking shots. Passes blocked (18th percentile), interceptions (3rd percentile), and tackles + interceptions (22nd percentile) he doesn't rank well in. Due to his position, you don't expect him to block passes and since his interceptions are so low he wouldn't have a high tackles + interceptions. He does rank pretty low in errors, siting in the 9th percentile, but since he's a young player you assume you can coach those out of him. To end on a more positive note, he ranks in elite levels for clearances and aerials won. He's in the 96th percentile for clearances and the 92nd percentile in aerials won. He's getting back and getting balls out of the box but he's also getting physical in the air to win the ball which is something Orlando definitely needs.
Discipline
Last but not least, lets talk about discipline and how it affects Tiago's game. He ranks just above average in yellow cards (51st percentile) and red cards (59th percentile) but ranks in the 21st percentile in fouls committed. He ranks very well in fouls drawn and penalty kicks won, where he ranks in the 88th percentile for drawing fouls and 91st percentile in penalty won. His shiftiness and pace are what help him achieve these high numbers but those will also help the team.
Comparisons to Current Orlando Wingers
So let's compare Tiago to two current left wingers on the roster in Iván Angulo and Tyrese Spicer. I think this will give fans a decent idea of how Tiago could play when he gets on the field for Orlando City. For reference, all the charts have the 3 players on it with Tiago in blue, Iván Angulo in yellow, and Tyrese Spicer in purple.
Shooting Comp
Let's start with shooting since Tiago has some great stats in that area and fans are looking for the best winger who can help put the ball in the back of the net. For goals, Tiago is clear of Spicer but is miles ahead of Angulo. In conjunction with his goal percentile numbers, Tiago is ahead of Angulo and Spicer on non penalty expected goals, expected goals, and average shot distance. In goals per shot and goals per shot on target, Tiago also leads both players with Spicer getting closer to Tiago.
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On the goals vein, lets examine "goal creating actions" between the three players. Tiago has a small advantage over Angulo and Spicer but all three are just above average in this category. Live ball passes, Angulo has a slight edge and for dead ball passes all three players are pretty even. Another stat where they are all even, but this time on a positive side, are take ons. All 3 are over the 80th percentile, which should make fans feel better. Defensive actions and shots are pretty close but all low, with Angulo having a slight edge in shots creating goals. Tiago does have a clear advantage in fouls drawn leading to a goal so that would be a nice addition for Orlando.
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Possession Comp
Looking at possession stats, there is a bit more variability between the 3 players but some interesting differences. We'll start with touches first with total touches. Spicer leads the way in this category by a healthy amount but none of the wingers are above the average in their position. When we break down touches a bit more, we see that Spicer and Tiago are ranked in the top percentiles in touches in the defensive penalty area. Spicer also has a fair amount of touches in the defensive 3rd as well. This makes sense for Spicer from last season because Toronto played him as a left wing back or even left back for stretches before coming to Orlando. The middle 3rd is not great for any of the 3 players but when we look at the attacking 3rd, things change a bit. In just the attacking 3rd, Iván Angulo ranks the highest out of the 3, with Spicer not too far behind. Tiago is a bit behind here, most likely due to his sub appearances and asking him to stay in the box to score. That leads into touches in the attacking penalty area where Tiago is top of the list with Angulo right behind and Spicer within range. Take-ons are a bit different with Angulo and Spicer having a lot more take ons then Tiago as well as having more successful take-ons. This again is due to Tiago's limited minutes/playing area compared to the other two. However, Tiago did have a better successful take-on percentage and resisting tackles during a take-on percentage compared to Angulo and Spicer. Spicer was close to Tiago on both those stats but Tiago was at an almost elite level.
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The last possession area we can look at are the carrying stats for each player. Spicer and Angulo are pretty close on these stats, with Tiago a fair way behind. For carries in total, all 3 players are below average, with Spicer being a bit further ahead then the others. Total carrying distance, progressive carrying distance, progressive carries, and carries into the final 3rd were ranked very well for both Spicer and Angulo, with Spicer just beating out Angulo on a few of them. All three scored well in carries into the penalty area, so Tiago can feel good about being on a similar pace as the other two. All three had well below average scores for miscontrols and dispossessions but due to their position as well as what they are asked to do, this shouldn't surprise anyone.
Passing Comp
There are a handful of passing stats that are worth looking at, 2 of which Tiago is far and above his two peers. Passes completed, passing completion percentage, and short passing completion percentage are all low for the three wingers. Angulo does have a bit of a better score for short passing completion percentage but it's not by much. When it comes to medium and long passing completion percentage, Tiago runs away from Angulo and Spicer. He ranks in the 80th percentile or higher, while Spicer and Angulo are below average for both. That is a welcome sign and shows that Tiago has different passing in his bag compared to the other wingers around him. Switches weren't something that any of them were great at but due to position you don't expect them to.
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Defense Comp
Defense is an interesting stat for all three players but if you watched a decent amount of Orlando City games last year, the results will not surprise you. Spicer was miles ahead of his peers when it came to tackles and where the tackles took place on the field. The only one he wasn't, was for tackles in the attacking 3rd. This can easily be explained by the position that Toronto played Spicer in when he was there. He played as more of wing back then a winger giving him more tackles at the position. This trend continues when you look at how often dribblers were tackles, challenged, and percent of how many dribblers were tackled. The only outlier is that Tiago lost less challenges and had a great percentile score with Spicer right behind him.
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Discipline Comp
Finally, let's talk about discipline. This is a section you hope none of the three guys are an outlier for but let's take a look to see were they stack up. Spicer does well when it comes to yellow cards, with Angulo right behind him, and Tiago not too far behind. All of them rank average for red cards but haven't had any in that particular season. For fouls committed, Spicer and Angulo are far ahead of Tiago, displaying that they don't commit as many fouls as the Brazilian winger has this past season. When it comes to fouls drawn, Tiago is way above the both of them, displaying his shiftiness and his speed to full effect.
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Video Breakdown: Tiago in the North East Cup
I put together a breakdown of one of my favorite games Tiago had with Bahia. It was the second leg of the final for the Copa do Nordeste. Tiago not only had a hat trick but also had some really nice place throughout the game.
Conclusion: How well does he fit with Orlando City?
Tiago is going to be an interesting piece for Orlando City when we start the season in about 2 months time. Many fans are conflicted as to whether or not he'll start due to his price tag and I'll say this: He doesn't need to start. The club seems pretty set on Spicer taking the reigns next season, to start, and that's fine because he's earned it. But what you should hope for is that Tiago is one of the first players off the bench when looking for an attacker but that he also has a quality preseason with the team to ensure that he is up to the left. In a perfect world, Spicer and Tiago fight it out for the starting left wing spot and whoever wins, gets to start while the other becomes a great piece off the bench.
Keep in mind, Tiago has positional flexibility and could play any of the front three spots but especially the right wing if he isn't playing out left. So if we are without Marco Pašalić, Tiago could easily get a run out there or if we want a different look at striker, we could see him up top. Just because we paid a few million dollars for this kid, doesn't mean he has to start right away. The goal of the U22 spots are to bring these guys in and get them familiar with the league so when they do get comfortable, they can play well. It's now up to Oscar and his staff to get Tiago acclimated and in fitness to play his best but fans should be excited for the youth.
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