Signing James Rodriguez or Richarlison Makes Sense (Kind of)
Stars Aligning in Orlando?
With Orlando City moving into the middle of their offseason (even though we have yet to get official roster decisions) there has been a flurry of rumors flying around, with most of them focused on some big stars across the globe. I don't mean to exclude Luis Otávio from Internacional, who has also been linked heavily to Orlando City (and don't worry I will be breaking him down shortly), but there appears to be a strategy-by the club or outside sources-for the Lions to get a big star to bolster their ranks.
I, for one, don't necessarily think that Orlando City needs to jump on a star right away. To me, it's all about whether or not it makes sense for the team to go in that direction with play on the field, being the first priority, and then star power as the second. But let's play out an exercise with both of the big stars connected to Orlando City to see if:
- Do either of them make sense for Orlando City at this time?
- Would there be a time for either of them to make sense for the club?
- What do they bring to the table if they come to Orlando?
- At the end, I will sum up all the points made and give my opinion on these two players. The third question will be answered throughout the player section with the other two being addressed at the end of the section.
James Rodriguez
History
Let's start with James Rodriguez since his news has been the most topical out of the two players (though the Richarlison news hasn't been exactly quiet). I don't need to really explain to most people who James Rodriguez is but I'll provide a brief retelling of the Colombian superstar.
James Rodriguez started his career with Envigado-the top flight of Colombian soccer and after two years there, he ended up at Banfield in Argentina where he spent another 2 years. After 4 total years in South America's top flights, he finally made the jump to Europe where he joined Porto.
His European move helped explode his career where he played 108 games with the Portuguese side tallying 32 goals and 42 assists. This is also where he received his first caps with the Colombian national team, making his debut on October 10, 2011. He was then sold to Monaco for €45 million Euros and continued his torrid campaign in Europe. In 38 games, he was able to put up 10 goals and 14 assists which caught the eye of the executives at Real Madrid; they would then turn around and transfer him in for €75 million euros.
His time at Real Madrid was just as impactful as it was at Porto with the Colombian attacker putting up 37 goals and 42 assists in 125 matches across three years. He then was loaned to Bayern Munich for two years where he consistently got matches and put up similar numbers. He came back to Real Madrid for a year and has bounced around club teams ever since. I don't say bounced around lightly either...
Since 2020 he has played for: Everton, Al-Rayyan, Olympiacos, São Paulo, Rayo Vallecano, and most recently León. With all that being said, for the purposes of this exercise, I'm not going to focus on his numbers from the Real Madrid time back since that was so long ago. He's not that player anymore so it would be unfair to compare him on that level. So what has he done lately?
For country, he's done a ton and he continues to do a lot. Over his 9,000 minutes for Colombia he has tallied 30 goals and 41 assists over 120 matches. If you look at his recent form, going back to Copa América in 2024, James has put up 3 goals 13 assists. That helped propel Colombia to the Copa América Finals
For club...not so much. He's only had 10 or more goal contributions three times in the past 5 years with his last time being in 2023.
On Field Stats
For the first part of the Liga MX season-Liga MX Apertura-James played 981 minutes with Leon totaling 3 goals and 2 assists with 1 yellow card. He ended up in the 48th percentile in goals, 45th percentile in assists, and 45th in goals + assists.
Though his shooting stats weren't great, his passing stats certainly stood out. The stats that stood out the most were his passes completed (98th percentile), medium passes completed (95th percentile), long passes completed (98th percentile), and progressive passes (98th percentile). I put the rest of the passing statistics below if you want to see the full stats.
 |
| From FB Ref |
I want touch on his defensive stats because they are dreadful and almost nonexistent so no one should be surprised by the low number here. He is just average (55th percentile) for tackles in the attacking 3rd. All the other stats are...forgettable.
Lastly, his possession stats are on par with his passing stats. He was in the 98th percentile in total touches, 98th percentile for touches in the middle third, and 98th percentile in successful take-on percentage. There are a few more stats that he did well in this category that is in the table below.
 |
| From FB Ref |
Positionally, he played a variety of different spots this past season with 4 at CAM, 3 at CF, and 3 at RW. With the positions that he played this past year it's hard to see where James would play for Orlando City. Martín Ojeda made the move to the #10 spot last season and broke out so you don't want to mess with those numbers going into this season. Rodriguez did play RW for León a few times this season but you have Marco Pašalić there who also had a better season overall with 21 goal contributions. The club does have an opportunity at LW so if you wanted to move Pašalić to that side you could look to do that and put James Rodriguez at RW leaving Ojeda in the middle of the field. Pašalić does have professional games at left wing so it is possible. If you really wanted to move Ojeda out of the #10 spot, he could play either side as he's had pretty decent career numbers at both LW and RW. But again, would you really go out of your way to mess with Ojeda's stellar season?
Off-the-Field Factors
You cannot deny the benefits of the off-the-field factors. James Rodriguez is one of the most popular Colombian footballers in the past 15 years. He's been the captain of the Colombian national team for quite some time and his jersey sells like hot cakes. There is a large Colombian population in Florida and they would certainly travel to Orlando to watch their club star play. The club could make a ton of money on merchandise sales, branding rights, and image of having him here.
Rodriguez isn't mired in scandals or personal issues. With the World Cup coming to the United States next year, he could get a lot more eyeballs on Orlando City when he's mentioned often during those worldwide broadcasts.
Misc.
The one question that hangs over everything is: how would Orlando City fit him into the roster budget? James Rodriguez made about $4.0 million last year which would put him above the Max Salary Threshold so he would have to be Designated Player (DP). The club is currently out of DP spots so they would either have to sell/buy out one of them or James Rodriguez would have to take a decent-sized pay cut and be a Max TAM player. But even at that number I'm not sure if James would take that number or if it still would make sense for Orlando to take the plunge on him.
Answering the Questions
- Question 1: Does it make sense for Orlando City at this time?
- For the on field performance I would rank it as: Lean No. There's some nice passing numbers in there but not a ton of minutes played which provides no benefit for the on field product.
- For the off the field items I would rank it as: No Brainer, Yes. The Wilfs are looking for returns on their investment and this is a quick way to make a lot of money back at once. This would bring in a lot of casual Colombian fans to Inter&Co who could potentially stay after James leaves the club.
- For the misc. I would rank it as: No. You have to do a fair amount of roster flipping to make it worth. It also doesn't seem like Muriel is going anywhere so you'd have to convince James to take a max TAM deal but I don't think he does that.
- Overall that puts me at a final determination that it doesn't make sense for the club right now.
- Question 2: Would there be a better time to bring him in?
- I'm not sure if there is a better time to bring in James Rodriguez. He is already 34, is about to play in what might be his final World Cup, and he doesn't seem to have the same energy he did 10 years ago. He may have some juice after the World Cup but I wouldn't sign him to a long deal if that were the case.
Richarlison de Andrade (Richarlison)
History
Richarlison is the other star that Orlando City has been linked to this offseason. The rumors actually started at the end of the season this past year when it was reported that Ricardo Moreira was meeting with Richarlison's camp and Tottenham in England. But since those rumors have persisted it might be best to cover the Brazilian striker.
Richarlison began his career with América Mineiro-a team in the second division of Brazilian football. He played one season with the first team appearing in 24 matches scoring 9 goals and 4 assists. It didn't take long for the Brazilian to be acquired by a larger team in Brazil. Fluminense acquired the young striker for €2.5 million euros and he continued to rise as he played 67 matches for the large Brazilian team. He put up 19 goals and 5 assists in his 67 matches which is a bit of a lower clip but still caught the attention of European clubs.
In 2017, Watford bought Richarlison for €12.5 million and brought him to England for the first time in his career. Interestingly enough, the striker played less games for Watford than he did for Fluminense. In just 41 games, Richarlison had 5 goals and 4 assists, not matching some of the output that he had before but still good for the side. The next year Richarlison would be bought by Everton for €39 million euros and this is where a lot of fans would be introduced to the infamous Richarlison. In 152 matches, he had 53 goals and 15 assists also played himself into the Brazilian National Team for the first time. After 4 years with Everton, Richarlison was transferred one more time but this time to Tottenham Hotspur for a €58 million euros. Since that transfer, he has played 108 games for Spurs collecting 24 goals and 12 assists in his time there. Throughout his career he has also played left wing (LW) and a bit of right wing (RW) but striker was his main position.
In his international career, he has played 3,000 minutes for the football giants. He joined the national team in 2018, under Tite who brought him in for the first time. During his time with Brazil he has 20 goals and 8 assists. He recently was with them in October where he had 2 sub appearances.
On Field Stats
For Richarlison's stats, we will take a look at his season numbers so far to see how he compares to the rest of the Premier League amongst all forwards. Richarlison has played 889 minutes between the Premier League and Champions League seasons totaling 4 goals and 2 assists. He's currently in the 76th percentile for goals, 92nd percentile for assists, 92nd percentile for goals + assists, and 87th percentile in non-penalty goals.
As a striker, the shooting stats are pretty important. Among the big stats he ranks in the 76th percentile in shots, 66th percentile in shots on target, 68th percentile in goals per shot, and 74th percentile in goals per shot on target. If you look at the deeper stats, there are some interesting facts that come out. Goals minus expected goals-a stat used to see player efficiency at scoring-ranks in the 92nd percentile and if you measure again taking out penalties he ranks in the 87th percentile. When looking at goal and shot creation he ranks in the 97th percentile in goal creating actions and in the 87th percentile in successful take-on's that lead to a goal.
 |
| from FB Ref |
When you look at his passing stats, he lights up some of the right metrics as well. He ranks in the 97th percentile in long passes completed, the 92nd percentile in progressive passes, and 92nd in crosses. He doesn't have a lot of either per 90 but he does rank relatively high in those metrics.
 |
| from FB Ref |
His possession stats are solid as well, especially for a forward. He comes in at the 82nd percentile in touches (87th percentile of touches in the defensive 3rd and the attacking 3rd) and 76th percentile for carries and progressive carries.
 |
| from FB Ref |
Finally, his defensive stats for a forward aren't bad at all considering his play. He ranks in the 71 percentile in tackles & tackles won (ranking in the 87th percentile for tackles in the middle 3rd), 87th percentile in dribbles challenges, 76th percentile in interceptions, and 97th percentile in clearances.
 |
| from FB Ref |
Off-the-Field Factors
Similarly to James Rodriguez, Richarlison is a pretty well known Brazilian striker in world football. I wouldn't necessarily put him on the level of James since James has had a longer career, especially at the international level, but Richarlison does have a level of world pedigree. It certainly helps that he plays in the Premier League where a lot of eyeballs are on him.
It also may be a big of a better fit for the club in general. As many know, Orlando City has always had the Brazilian identity ever since we made the jump to Major League Soccer (MLS). Our first majority owner in the era, Flavio Agusto da Silva, was from Brazil and our first CEO of the club, Alex Leitão was as well so they used those connections early to add a Brazilian influence to the club. Our first DP signing was Kaká, and one of our later DP signings was Nani-both of whom drew on the Brazilian/Portuguese influence of the club in its early days. That all culminates into where the club is today. Our current General Manager and Sporting Director, Ricardo Moreira, is also Brazilian so it shouldn't surprise anyone that a Brazilian star could be coming for Orlando City.
When the club was in its early days, during both the Kaka era and the Nani era, we were able to draw in lots of causal Brazilian fans in the stadium. The formula still works now, with a very large Brazilian community as well as the many who travel to Orlando for holiday throughout the year. Richarlison could be that name that draws people to see Orlando City. He may not be a big of a name but he's definitely someone people would come see.
Misc.
There are two additional points I want to make in this section about Richarlison. Similarly to James Rodriguez, the team would need to make room for him to come to Orlando. Due to the wage that Richarlison is on right now, the club would have to buy out or sell one of their DPs to make that happen. The obvious choice, buy out Luis Muriel. That project has not worked in Orlando and with being another year older, I doubt it will. Unlike the James move, I like this buyout or sale better just because it doesn't sacrifice anything the club currently has. The second point is Richarlison is quite a bit younger than James Rodriguez. He's currently 28 and could be playing football for a while longer still. To grab a striker, in his prime, would be a huge get for Orlando City.
Answering the Questions
- Question 1: Does it make sense for Orlando City at this time?
- For the on field performance, rank: Yes (ish). He's had moments where he's been good and even great for both club and country. But he does have an injury history that doesn't make him the most ideal candidate. Lately, he has been healthier but the club will want to make sure they do their due diligence when it comes to his health. If he stays healthy, he could light up MLS and that's not an understatement. He could also do it for years which would be a huge lift. I'm not sure if he 100% fits Papi's pressing style but Muriel doesn't fit that right now either. Our best pressing forward, Ramiro Enrique, was sold this past season so we haven't had a good pressing forward.
- For the off the field items, rank: Certainly yes. He brings back all the Brazilian attention we were getting before and then some. With the World Cup being in the United States and Richarlison most likely making the squad, it'll be a huge boost for Orlando City. He'll also attract a variety of marketing opportunities and bring more Brazilian investment into the area.
- For the misc. I would rank it as: Neutral, lean yes. The buyout is honestly not the biggest deal and if the Wilfs want to win now, they will buyout Muriel. His age is the best part of all of this, with him being only 28 we could have his impact for some time and that's a huge benefit.
- Overall that puts me at a final determination: I would say yes, if you don't have to break the bank to bring him in.
- Question 2: Would there be a better time to bring him in?
- We could wait a bit longer. Since Richarlison is only 28 and if he's our guy, we could wait until he's out of contract at the end of 2027. I also don't imagine that he'll fall off by then either but you do run the risk that if he plays well at the World Cup, his value goes up and he probably gets sold and certainly not to us. It all depends on if we want the star now.
So will it be either?
So the big question: do either of these players make sense right now? By the tone of my comments above you can probably figure out where I sit on either player. I don't think James Rodriguez makes a ton of sense for a lot of reasons. We'd have to most likely open a DP spot for him as he probably won't take a TAM deal but having him as a DP doesn't solve our striker issues. He also doesn't really show up for his club so why would it change now? Also it was reported by Tom Bogert that there is ZERO truth to James coming to Orlando City.
For Richarlison, that seems like a more realistic opportunity IF the front office can convince his camp that it's a good move and Tottenham isn't asking for a whole bunch of money. It's going to cost us something but it has to be reasonable for the club to take a chance. They also need to check his health to make sure he's in good physical shape and that he's motivated to make the move to play for the club. The rumors keep popping up so there may be some smoke to this fire. The first rumor came from Fabrizio Romano back in October when the front office met with Richarlison's camp in London.
All in all, even if it isn't either Rodriguez or Richarlison it's great to see the club trying to make a swing to land a big star to add to the team. But that's the idea the club has to keep in mind: it needs to be a player who fits what this team is building. Getting a star to just get a star doesn't help the on the field product which is what the club should be focused on but it could be tempting to bring in a star to make money on merchandise, ticket sales, and marketing deals. Let’s hope the Wilfs and Ricardo think about that when they go for their next home-run move.
Comments
Post a Comment